jeudi 24 juillet 2014
vendredi 19 avril 2013
samedi 10 mars 2012
Qu’est-ce que l’économie ?
L’économie est souvent décrite comme la plus molle des sciences dures ou
la plus dure des sciences molles. Elle partage avec les autres sciences
sociales une ontologie par laquelle des acteurs agissent intentionnellement
pour donner naissance à des phénomènes collectifs. Elle partage avec les
sciences dures une épistémologie fondée sur des modèles formalisés qui
permettent une simulation aisée des phénomènes. Elle a ainsi longtemps
cultivé des caractéristiques spécifiques qui tendent peu à peu à s’estomper.
ONTOLOGIE DE L’ÉCONOMIE
L’ontologie des disciplines scientifiques est fondée sur des principes
généraux, qui s’appliquent parfaitement à l’économie. L’univers est
structuré en niveaux emboîtés d’organisation, chacun caractérisé par
des entités spécifiques en interaction dans un environnement
commun. Le fonctionnement des entités d’un niveau (qualifié de
macroscopique) est expliqué par les entités de niveau inférieur (qualifié
de microscopique). Les différences entre économie et autres
sciences sociales reposent alors sur la mise en oeuvre de schémas
d’explication spécifiques.
Niveaux d’organisation
La discipline économique distingue trois niveaux d’organisation
essentiels, chacun caractérisé par des entités propres. Le niveau intermédiaire,
le « niveau actorial », est formé par des acteurs économiques
qui ont des comportements autonomes. En fait, l’économie a pris
l’habitude de considérer comme des acteurs autonomes non seulement
des individus, mais des entités collectives (entreprises, syndicats). Le
niveau supérieur est le « niveau social », qui est le siège de phénomènes
socio-économiques divers (distribution des revenus, relations
privilégiées, prix, phénomènes de croissance). Il comprend en particulier
des institutions, conçues comme des entités favorisant la coordination
entre les acteurs (normes, monnaie, marchés). Le niveau inférieur est
le « niveau mental », formé des états mentaux attribués aux acteurs
(individuels ou collectifs). Il s’agit plus spécifiquement des croyances et
des préférences des acteurs (et de leurs opportunités). Plus récemment,
un niveau encore inférieur a été considéré, le « niveau neuronal »,
formé des neurones du cerveau.
Chaque niveau est décrit par les propriétés attribuées aux entités, par
des liaisons entre ces entités et par l’environnement global. Les liaisons
peuvent définir un réseau préalable entre les acteurs ou être tissées par
les acteurs eux-mêmes. L’environnement est lui-même formé d’un
contexte matériel et des éventuelles entités du niveau supérieur. Au
niveau neuronal, les neurones ont un comportement très simple et
communiquent dans des processus beaucoup plus complexes. Au
niveau mental, les états mentaux de base sont souvent traités comme
relativement indépendants entre eux, mais sont fondamentalement
conditionnés par le contexte. Au niveau actorial, les acteurs posent des
actions autonomes ou interagissent avec leurs congénères par des interactions
variées, dans un contexte matériel et institutionnel donné. Au
niveau social, les phénomènes socio-économiques se conditionnent
les uns les autres, dans un contexte socio-juridique commun.
Le cadre ontologique est très bien décrit par la théorie des jeux, qui
décrit les rapports stratégiques entre acteurs à un niveau élevé de généralité.
Annexée par l’économie, elle est définie comme la discipline
qui étudie les choix interdépendants entre des acteurs autonomes. Elle
considère des joueurs qui élaborent des actions de type quelconque
dans un face-à-face sans médiation institutionnelle. Les joueurs ont des
préférences qui dépendent tant de leurs actions que de celles des autres,
dans la mesure où elles s’exercent sur des conséquences communes. Ils
ont des opportunités indépendantes qui délimitent le domaine des
actions possibles, ces actions pouvant se dérouler dans le temps. Ils ont
enfin des croyances qui portent sur leur environnement commun, mais
aussi sur les actions et les états mentaux des autres, ce qui engendre des
croyances croisées. Finalement, les joueurs peuvent jouer un jeu (statique
ou dynamique) unique ou un jeu répété sur un horizon fini ou infini.
Des propriétés plus spécifiques sont introduites dans un contexte
particulier, ainsi des échanges de biens. L’économie apparaît alors sous
sa forme traditionnelle d’étude des phénomènes de production,
d’échange et de consommation de biens. Les biens sont simplement
des entités suffisamment divisibles et manipulables pour faire l’objet de
transactions indépendantes. Les agents, caractérisés par leurs rôles dans
le processus économique (producteurs, consommateurs), expriment
des offres et des demandes de biens en fonction de signaux particuliers
que sont les prix. Les préférences des agents dépendent des prix et des
biens produits ou consommés, et les croyances des agents portent
sur les protocoles d’échanges (et leurs intervenants). Les institutions
sont des procédures d’échanges (marchés multilatéraux, procédures
d’enchères), encadrées par des institutions plus générales (droits de
propriété, confiance).(A Suivre)
lundi 22 août 2011
We've been warned: the system is ready to blow
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on 9 August. Photograph: Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images
For the past two centuries and more, life in Britain has been governed by a simple concept: tomorrow will be better than today. Black August has given us a glimpse of a dystopia, one in which the financial markets buckle and the cities burn. Like Scrooge, we have been shown what might be to come unless we change our ways.
There were glimmers of hope amid last week's despair. Neighbourhoods rallied round in the face of the looting. The Muslim community in Birmingham showed incredible dignity after three young men were mown down by a car and killed during the riots. It was chastening to see consumerism laid bare. We have seen the future and we know it sucks. All of which is cause for cautious optimism – provided the right lessons are drawn.
Lesson number one is that the financial and social causes are linked. Lesson number two is that what links the City banker and the looter is the lack of restraint, the absence of boundaries to bad behaviour. Lesson number three is that we ignore this at our peril.
To understand the mess we are in, it's important to know how we got here. Today marks the 40th anniversary of Richard Nixon's announcement that America was suspending the convertibility of thedollar into gold at $35 an ounce. Speculative attacks on the dollar had begun in the late 1960s as concerns mounted over America's rising trade deficit and the cost of the Vietnam war. Other countries were increasingly reluctant to take dollars in payment and demanded gold instead. Nixon called time on the Bretton Woods system of fixed but adjustable exchange rates, under which countries could use capital controls in order to stimulate their economies without fear of a run on their currency. It was also an era in which protectionist measures were used quite liberally: Nixon announced on 15 August 1971 that he was imposing a 10% tax on all imports into the US.
Four decades on, it is hard not to feel nostalgia for the Bretton Woods system. Imperfect though it was, it acted as an anchor for the global economy for more than a quarter of a century, and allowed individual countries to pursue full employment policies. It was a period devoid of systemic financial crises.
Utter mess
There have been big structural changes in the way the global economy has been managed since 1971, none of them especially beneficial. The fixed exchange rate system has been replaced by a hybrid system in which some currencies are pegged and others float. The currencies in the eurozone, for example, are fixed against each other, but the eurofloats against the dollar, the pound and the Swiss franc. The Hong Kong dollar is tied to the US dollar, while Beijing has operated a system under which the yuan is allowed to appreciate against the greenback but at a rate much slower than economic fundamentals would suggest.
The system is an utter mess, particularly since almost every country in the world is now seeking to manipulate its currency downwards in order to make exports cheaper and imports dearer. This is clearly not possible. Sir Mervyn King noted last week that the solution to the crisis involved China and Germany reflating their economies so that debtor nations like the US and Britain could export more. Progress on that front has been painfully slow, and will remain so while the global currency system remains so dysfunctional. The solution is either a fully floating system under which countries stop manipulating their currencies or an attempt to recreate a new fixed exchange rate system using a basket of world currencies as its anchor.
The break-up of the Bretton Woods system paved the way for the liberalisation of financial markets. This began in the 1970s and picked up speed in the 1980s. Exchange controls were lifted and formal restrictions on credit abandoned. Policymakers were left with only one blunt instrument to control the availability of credit: interest rates.
For a while in the late 1980s, the easy availability of money provided the illusion of wealth but there was a shift from a debt-averse world where financial crises were virtually unknown to a debt-sodden world constantly teetering on the brink of banking armageddon.
Currency markets lost their anchor in 1971 when the US suspended dollar convertibility. Over the years, financial markets have lost their moral anchor, engaging not just in reckless but fraudulent behaviour. According to the US economist James Galbraith, increased complexity was the cover for blatant and widespread wrongdoing.
Looking back at the sub-prime mortgage scandal, in which millions of Americans were mis-sold home loans, Galbraith says there has been a complete breakdown in trust that is impairing the hopes of economic recovery.
"There was a private vocabulary, well-known in the industry, covering these loans and related financial products: liars' loans, Ninja loans (the borrowers had no income, no job or assets), neutron loans (loans that would explode, destroying the people but leaving the buildings intact), toxic waste (the residue of the securitisation process). I suggest that this tells you that those who sold these products knew or suspected that their line of work was not 100% honest. Think of the restaurant where the staff refers to the food as scum, sludge and sewage."
Finally, there has been a big change in the way that the spoils of economic success have been divvied up. Back when Nixon was berating the speculators attacking the dollar peg, there was an implicit social contract under which the individual was guaranteed a job and a decent wage that rose as the economy grew. The fruits of growth were shared with employers, and taxes were recycled into schools, health care and pensions. In return, individuals obeyed the law and encouraged their children to do the same. The assumption was that each generation would have a better life than the last.
This implicit social contract has broken down. Growth is less rapid than it was 40 years ago, and the gains have disproportionately gone to companies and the very rich. In the UK, the professional middle classes, particularly in the southeast, are doing fine, but below them in the income scale are people who have become more dependent on debt as their real incomes have stagnated. Next are the people on minimum wage jobs, which have to be topped up by tax credits so they can make ends meet. At the very bottom of the pile are those who are without work, many of them second and third generation unemployed.
Deep trouble
A crisis that has been four decades in the making will not be solved overnight. It will be difficult to recast the global monetary system to ensure that the next few years see gradual recovery rather than depression. Wall Street and the City will resist all attempts at clipping their wings. There is strong ideological resistance to the policies that make decent wages in a full employment economy feasible: capital controls, allowing strong trade unions, wage subsidies, and protectionism.
But this is a fork in the road. History suggests there is no iron law of progress and there have been periods when things have got worse not better. Together, the global imbalances, the manic-depressive behaviour of stock markets, the venality of the financial sector, the growing gulf between rich and poor, the high levels of unemployment, the naked consumerism and the riots are telling us something.
This is a system in deep trouble and it is waiting to blow.
How to Lower Your Property Taxes
Home prices are still going down in many markets. But your property-tax bill might well be going up.
The good news: There are ways to fight back.
Property taxes across the U.S. have increased by nearly 20% from 2005 to 2009, the most recent data available, according to an April study by the National Association of Home Builders. The median annual real-estate-tax payment was $1,917 in 2009, up from $1,614 in 2005.
Over the same period, home prices in major urban centers fared badly, decreasing 31%, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index.
Elwood Smith
Property taxes don't move in lockstep with home values because local governments typically don't measure values every year and some have limits on annual property-tax increases, says Natalia Siniavskaia, a housing-policy economist at the home-builders group. That means your current property taxes might reflect your home's value when the market was healthier. Property-tax adjustments lag behind changes in home prices by an average of three years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
There isn't much you can do about your property-tax rate, which is set by your local government. But homeowners can often get their assessment lowered if they appeal to their local assessor. That can translate into a lower tax bill.
More than half of homeowners are paying too much in property taxes, says Jim Kane, Chicago-based managing director of True Partners Consulting, a tax advisory firm.
One key to a successful appeal: fact-checking the assessor's work. About half of all successful appeals come from homeowners pointing out an error in the assessor's description of their home, Mr. Kane says. Such errors can drive up a home's value.
To understand how these mistakes happen—and how to correct them—it is important to keep in mind how your local government assigns a value to your home.
Local officials can assign a value to your home using house-by-house appraisals, computer models or even aerial photos to gauge how many rooms are in a house or whether there has been a new addition, such as a deck or swimming pool. But it's difficult to look closely at each home every year, so officials will also update home values based on recent home sales in your area.
The superficial nature of the assessments means details can be overlooked.
"We can be wrong," says Dusty Rhodes, elected auditor and assessor in Hamilton County, Ohio, which includes Cincinnati.
That is what Lynne Weaver, a Phoenix retiree, discovered after her property-tax bill started climbing. To figure out why, she says, she went on the Maricopa County, Ariz., assessor's website and discovered that a handful of her neighbors' homes were assessed for as much as $205,000 less than her own property.
Ms. Weaver says she didn't think the number was accurate because her neighbors' homes were similar to hers in construction and acreage, but had backyard pools and other amenities. Her home had "grass and flowers" in the backyard and an unfinished basement, she says.
She appealed her assessment nearly half a dozen times over the course of six years before she stumbled on the problem: The assessor had incorrectly said a room used as an office was 300 square feet larger than it actually was.
From SmartMoney
Armed with that knowledge, she successfully lowered her property assessment by 45% to $390,000 in 2010 from $709,715 in 2009. The lower assessment cut her 2010 property-tax billto $3,257 from $5,597 in 2009. Ms. Weaver, who had already been advocating for cuts to local property taxes, says the experience of appealing her own assessment galvanized her even more. She runs a group that has tried unsuccessfully to get a measure on the state ballot to cap property taxes.
Paul Petersen, spokesman for the Maricopa County assessor's office, says errors of that magnitude are uncommon. But errors can happen, he says, and that's why "we expect the public to help us be more accurate" and appeal if it's warranted. About one-fourth of residential property appeals result in a lower assessment, Mr. Petersen says, adding that the county reassesses properties every year to help reflect the changing market.
While Ms. Weaver fought back herself, you also can hire a tax lawyer or a property-tax consultant to do the legwork for you—if you are willing to pay up.
Some parts of the country have a stronger tradition of residents appealing property assessments because of higher tax rates or more-frequent assessments. Some states reappraise property values each year, while others do it once every several years. You might want to appeal your property value after each reassessment.
In Chicago, properties are assessed every three years. Residents appealed an average of one-fourth of reassessments during the past decade, according to data from the Cook County, Ill., assessor. An average of 18% of those appeals per year resulted in a decrease in the homeowner's assessed property value.
Local officials say they expect appeals from property owners if it's warranted, so don't be shy. "The appeal process is part of the mass appraisal process," says Burt Manning, chief appraiser for Fulton County, Ga., which includes most of Atlanta.
Here's how to do it:
Checking Your Assessment
Most local governments allow residents roughly 10 days to 30 days to appeal their assessment after notification. To figure out the timeframe in your county or city, check your reassessment notice, which is typically sent in the mail, or call your local assessor's office.
Ms. Weaver's case points to the importance of ensuring your assessor has accurately described your property. To do this, you will need to review what is called the "property record card," a summary of the characteristics of your home. Make sure there isn't an extra bedroom, say, or three bathrooms instead of two. Extra features can drive up the value of your home. You can usually find a description of your home on your assessor's website. If not, you might have to visit the assessor's office.
If you have made substantial changes to your home—a refurbished basement or new marble counter tops—you might want to be a bit wary of an appeal, since it could have the unintended effect of driving your assessment even higher. But property-assessment advisers say you shouldn't be too careful. If you feel your property is being overvalued by more than a few thousand dollars, it usually is worth the effort to appeal, they say.
Similarly, look closely at the assessor's description of your home to ensure that any characteristics that would drive down the value of your property—repeated flooding in your backyard, for instance, or a leaky roof that would be expensive to replace—are duly noted.
How to Appeal
The key to a successful appeal of your property value, experts say, is comparable sales, or "comps."
In many states, the appeal process is like a less-formal court hearing, where property owners present their case to several local officials or representatives. The simplest way to convince officials that your property has been incorrectly valued is to provide evidence of the sales price of homes that are comparable to yours, in terms of square footage, amenities and neighborhood characteristics. Bring sale documents and photos of your property, as well as the comps.
The websites of many assessors' offices include recent property sales, or you can check sales prices in your newspaper or with a local real-estate broker. Experts caution homeowners not to rely on home-value data from Zillow Inc. or other online real-estate information and search firms, since their figures aren't official and are unlikely to stand up as evidence in an appeal.
For purposes of comparison, you should consider only "arm's length" sales, meaning a sale between two parties who don't know each other. A sale between two people who do know each other could result in a lower price and is unlikely to be accepted in an appeal. Check for the same last name on sales documents as a clue that a sale isn't arm's length.
The appeal board also might question a home that sells quickly in a bad market, which could indicate an owner who needed to sell in a hurry. That means that sale might not work as a comp. Some property-assessment advisers say you can even use foreclosed homes, if those are the only sales in your area.
Elwood Smith
Assessors choose a specific date when measuring a home's value, which might be several months before you receive your assessment notice. If your assessor set values on Oct. 1, 2010, and you are looking at home sales in June and July 2011, an appeal board is likely to reject those comps.
The weak housing market means there aren't as many people selling their homes, making it difficult in some places to find comparable sales.
If that happens, you might consider hiring a professional appraiser to value your home. The average appraisal ranges from $350 to $600 for a typical single-family home, according to the Appraisal Institute, a professional association. Appraisers typically charge by the hour to appear at an appeal hearing. (To find an appraiser, go to www.appraisalinstitute.org and search by ZIP Code.)
Another option is to hire a lawyer who specializes in property-tax appeals. That is what Al Hollander did when he bought a house in Springfield Township, N.J., and realized that he was paying higher taxes than a nearby house that sold for about $35,000 more.
Mr. Hollander bought his home for $465,000 in May 2010. It is on 1½ acres and has five bedrooms and 3½ baths. But a nearby house, which sold for about $500,000 in the summer of 2009 and is on 2.2 acres with a swimming pool, paid $1,200 less in 2009 property taxes, he says.
Mr. Hollander, a physician's assistant, hired a friend who is a property-tax lawyer to lower his assessment. "What do I know about property taxes? I go to an expert," the 42-year-old Mr. Hollander says.
The lawyer helped Mr. Hollander lower his assessment from $605,000 to $550,000 for 2011 through an informal hearing with the assessor's office. The cut reduced his 2011 property taxes to $12,000 from $13,100 in 2010. For 2012, his assessment decreased to $500,000, meaning additional tax savings of $1,100. Springfield Township officials were unable to be reached for comment.
Property-tax lawyers often work on contingency and charge 30% to 50% of the tax savings for each year, says John Brusniak, president of the National Association of Property Tax Attorneys, a professional group. Those fees can differ by locality, he says.
Hiring a Firm
Finally, some homeowners choose to hire a property-tax consultant to do the appeal. These firms typically charge a flat, upfront property-analysis fee to determine whether they want to take your case, in addition to any filing fees.
Yet some appraisal offices frown on such services. "We give you the ammunition to beat us up," says Bernardo J. Garcia, director of legal services at the Harris County Appraisal District in Texas, which includes Houston. He says his office gives people a copy of all the comparable-sales data they need to use to make an assessment. The appeals process is straightforward, he adds.
Property-tax consultants say they can often get customers a better deal—and save them time spent in making court appearances.
"We know all the ins and outs of the process," says Paul Henry, a principal at Tax Reduction Services in Greenport, N.Y. "The process is cumbersome and riddled with paperwork that needs to be precise, so petitions are not thrown out."
Experts warn that homeowners should be cautious. "One must always be wary of scams in these areas," says Richard Roll, founder of the American Homeowners Association, a Stamford, Conn., homeowners' membership group. He recommends getting local references and checking the consultant's credentials before signing a contract.
In the last three years, the Better Business Bureau has received nearly 650 complaints nationwide about property-tax consultants. More than half of the complaints involve advertising and refund problems.
Write to Jeannette Neumann
vendredi 12 août 2011
With Concentration, You Can Be Whatever Or Whoever You Want To Be
You can make those that you come in contact with, feel, as you do, because you radiate
vibrations of the way you feel and your vibrations are felt by others. When you concentrate on a
certain thing you turn all the rays of your vibrations on this. Thought is the directing power of all
Life's vibrations.
If a person should enter a room with a lot of people and feel as if he were a person of no
consequence no one would know he was there unless they saw him, and even if they did, they
would not remember seeing him, because they were not attracted towards him. But let him enter
the room feeling that he was magnetic and concentrating on this thought, others would feel his
vibration.
So remember the way you feel you can make others feel. This is the law. Make yourself a
concentrated dynamo from which your thoughts vibrate to others. Then you are a power in the
world. Cultivate the art of feeling, for as I said before you can only make others feel what you
feel.
If you will study all of the great characters of history you will find that they were enthusiastic.
First they were enthusiastic themselves, and then they could arouse others' enthusiasm. It is
latent in everyone. It is a wonderful force when once aroused.
All public men to be a success have to possess it. Cultivate it by concentration. Set aside some
hour of the day, wherein to hold rapt converse with the soul. Meditate with sincere desire and
contrite heart and you will be able to accomplish that which you have meditated on. This is the
keynote of success.
"Think, speak and act just as you wish to be, And you will be that which you wish to be."
You are just what you think you are and not what you may appear to be. You may fool others
but not yourself. You may control your life and actions just as you can control your hands. If you
want to raise your hand you must first think of raising it. If you want to control your life you mustfirst control your thinking. Easy to do, is it not? Yes it is, if you will but concentrate on what you
think about.
For he only can That says he will.
How can we secure concentration? To this question, the first and last answer must be: By
interest and strong motive. The stronger the motive the greater the concentration.--Eustace
Miller, M. D.
The Successful Lives Are the Concentrated Lives. The utterly helpless multitude that sooner or
later have to be cared for by charity, are those that were never able to concentrate, and who
have become the victims of negative ideas.
Train yourself so you will be able to centralize your thought and develop your brain power, and
increase your mental energy, or you can be a slacker, a drifter, a quitter or a sleeper. It all
depends on how you concentrate, or centralize your thoughts.
Your thinking then becomes a fixed power and you do not waste time thinking about something
that would not be good for you. You pick out the thoughts that will be the means of bringing you
what you desire, and they become a material reality. Whatever we create in the thought world
will some day materialize. That is the law. Don't forget this.
In the old days men drifted without concentration but this is a day of efficiency and therefore all
of our efforts must be concentrated, if we are to win any success worth the name.
Why People Often Do Not Get What They Concentrate On. Because they sit down in hopeless
despair and expect it to come to them. But if they will just reach out for it with their biggest effort
they will find it is within their reach. No one limits us but ourselves. We are what we are today as
the result of internal conditions. We can control the external conditions. They are subject to our
will.
Through our concentration we can attract what we want, because we became in tune with the
Universal forces, from which we can get what we want.
You have watched races no doubt. They all line up together. Each has his mind set on getting to
the goal before the others. This is one kind of concentration. A man starts to think on a certain
subject. He has all kinds of thoughts come to him, but by concentration he shuts out all these
but the one he has chosen. Concentration is just a case of willing to do a certain thing and doing
it.
If you want to accomplish anything first put yourself in a concentrating, reposeful, receptive,
acquiring frame of mind. In tackling unfamiliar work make haste slowly and deliberately and then
you will secure that interior activity, which is never possible when you are in a hurry or under a
strain.
When you "think hard" or try to hurry results too quickly, you generally shut off the interior flow
of thoughts and ideas. You have often no doubt tried hard to think of something but could not,
but just as soon as you stopped trying to think of it, it came to you.
HOW TO DEVELOP YOUR CONCENTRATION!
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